Analysis by Michael Baer
Any new presidency in the United States brings with it an agenda on payroll-related laws and rules, and the incoming Trump Administration likely will push to roll back several initiatives and start some that can dramatically affect payroll operations.
In general, former President Trump’s win in the 2024 election means his earlier efforts to break down the administrative state can begin again. The president-elect has said he would greatly reduce the federal workforce and is expected to remake administrative policy by bringing on, in leadership positions, those who similarly look to curtail the influence of regulatory bodies.
While President Biden was successful in passing funding measures to enhance the missions of key agencies that oversee payroll functions, look for the Trump team to, at the least, reduce that funding and potentially greatly modify the missions of these traditional regulatory powerhouses.
Here is a brief breakdown of what could happen starting January 20, 2025:
Wage and Hour Laws and Regulations
The most immediate impact to occur for payroll will likely happen with the Labor Department, whose Wage and Hour Division has been responsible for formulating a web of rules and regulations to implement the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA), a law from the 1930’s that sets baselines for worker protections.
The Labor Department is in the Trump Administration's crosshairs because for years it has been seen by conservatives as burdensome on business operations and limiting economic growth due to numerous (and often expensive) rules that apply limits and place criteria on everything from hiring to wage payments to termination processes.
Under an agenda to expand worker protections under the FLSA, the Biden Administration not only worked to reverse several of the previous Trump Administration’s changes but also put in place a series of rules impacting payroll that likely will be reversed soon after President-Elect Trump takes office.
For example, expect the latest rule dictating how employers can exempt certain workers from FLSA-mandated overtime pay to be changed. The current Biden rule, effective July 1, 2024, requires employers to pay a salary of at least $844 a week ($43,888 a year) along with meeting other duties tests before they can avoid the requirement to pay 1.5 times the hourly pay rate to those working more than 40 hours in a work week. The higher salary threshold continues to be challenged in courts and is set to increase again on January 1, 2025, barring legal action that could stop it.
The first Trump Administration also rescinded and reissued rules that the Obama Administration put in place, including the salary threshold for the overtime exemption. The new administration may go further to change how employers implement the overtime statute.
This and several related wage and hour rules, such as the one to determine employment status under the law, also are on the block to be rescinded and reworked.
Wage and hour enforcement actions and audit activity beefed up under the Biden Administration, will lessen, especially if the Labor Department’s workforce is reduced.
Similarly, expect less scrutiny and activity from the Employee Benefits Security Administration, which oversees the implementation of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA). Regarding stock compensation and regulating stock-based retirement programs, employer plan administrators can expect a pullback from efforts to place more accountability on financial advisors.
The federal minimum wage, currently $7.25 an hour, is set by law, and Congress would need to reset that amount. This is not likely a priority under the new Trump Administration. Many states and localities set higher amounts for businesses and employers in those jurisdictions.
Other Labor Department functions, such as the Employment and Training Administration, which is responsible for administering the Federal Unemployment Tax Act and assisting in worker training through various programs, may see cuts under a Trump presidency.
The first Trump Administration put forth some effort to add a paid family leave provision to the FLSA for parents expecting children. While the U.S. currently has no law requiring most employers to provide paid time off for any employees, this limited initiative may get resurrected.
Income and Social Taxation
Major tax changes in effect since President Trump’s first term will sunset at the end of 2025 should Congress fail to extend the provisions. The likelihood of any income tax increases, even for the wealthy, is significantly reduced under the next Trump Administration and a Congress that is run by Republicans.
Payroll professionals should pay attention to the nuances surrounding the congressional debate over extending the 2017 legislation. While tax rate changes could occur in 2026, so could some other provisions, such as the expansion of the very limited deduction for employee moving expenses and the treatment of business-related meals.
Several initiatives pronounced on the stump by Trump could have far-reaching implications for payroll if they are passed by Congress. Recategorizing tips as tax-free will impact most payroll professionals in the service industry if such an initiative sees the light of day.
More far-reaching for payroll is whether the president-elect will push for higher tariffs on imports and, as he has said while campaigning, use those amounts to pare down or even eliminate the federal income tax altogether.
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is charged with administering the tax law and, importantly, collecting various taxes to fund the federal government’s operations such as the Defense Department and other social programs.
Expect cuts in funding and staffing at the IRS like the Labor Department. Several conservatives see much overreach not only in the interpretation of tax statutes for implementation but in enforcement for collections. This could impact payroll in its ability to report wages and remit taxes if services are reduced.
The Social Security Administration, while not charged with collecting the taxes assessed to fund its programs (IRS does that), nevertheless, has a very large bureaucracy that primarily administers retirement, health, and disability benefits under the Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA).
While incoming President Trump pledged on the campaign trail that he would not gut Social Security programs, the agency itself may be seen as a target for staff reductions.
Other Agencies
The independent Equal Employment Opportunity Commission’s efforts under the Obama and Biden Administrations included a payroll-related effort to collect employee tax form data and use it to compare the wage levels of different types of jobs across ethnic groups. This initiative likely will be curtailed under the new Trump presidency, with the influence of the EEOC greatly reduced.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, much like the Labor Department, has been seen by conservatives as unduly limiting innovation and stifling economic growth. Efforts underway by the CFPB to categorize many Earned Wage Access programs (also known as on-demand pay) as consumer loans subject to the general provisions of the Truth in Lending Act, likely will be halted or reversed when Trump takes office.
Expect other payment-related advances, such as the use of online payments, expansion of real-time payment rails, and developments with virtual currencies to continue with limited regulatory abatement under the next Trump Administration.
The Department of Homeland Security coordinates with the Labor Department to allow foreigners to be employed in the United States. The agency’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement group likely will see increased funding and support for initiatives to curtail illegal immigrants and this may impact how employers can employ and pay foreign workers.
The Affordable Care Act, sometimes known as Obamacare, is administered by several agencies and was one senator’s vote away from being eliminated during President Trump’s first term. On the campaign trail, Trump was vague about the prospects of further health care initiatives by the government. As several aspects of the Affordable Care Act involve payroll operations, those in payroll need to pay attention to how this new administration addresses the health care problem in the U.S.
Author: Michael Baer
Michael Baer is president of Baer Unlimited, an independent research, analysis, and communications provider. He has covered payroll-related developments for four decades. For more on these issues discussed above, contact him directly at mike.baer@baerunlimited.com, or book Michael as a mentor through the GPA Mentor page.
Analysis by Michael Baer
Any new presidency in the United States brings with it an agenda on payroll-related laws and rules, and the incoming Trump Administration likely will push to roll back several initiatives and start some that can dramatically affect payroll operations.
In general, former President Trump’s win in the 2024 election means his earlier efforts to break down the administrative state can begin again. The president-elect has said he would greatly reduce the federal workforce and is expected to remake administrative policy by bringing on, in leadership positions, those who similarly look to curtail the influence of regulatory bodies.
While President Biden was successful in passing funding measures to enhance the missions of key agencies that oversee payroll functions, look for the Trump team to, at the least, reduce that funding and potentially greatly modify the missions of these traditional regulatory powerhouses.
Here is a brief breakdown of what could happen starting January 20, 2025:
Wage and Hour Laws and Regulations
The most immediate impact to occur for payroll will likely happen with the Labor Department, whose Wage and Hour Division has been responsible for formulating a web of rules and regulations to implement the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA), a law from the 1930’s that sets baselines for worker protections.
The Labor Department is in the Trump Administration's crosshairs because for years it has been seen by conservatives as burdensome on business operations and limiting economic growth due to numerous (and often expensive) rules that apply limits and place criteria on everything from hiring to wage payments to termination processes.
Under an agenda to expand worker protections under the FLSA, the Biden Administration not only worked to reverse several of the previous Trump Administration’s changes but also put in place a series of rules impacting payroll that likely will be reversed soon after President-Elect Trump takes office.
For example, expect the latest rule dictating how employers can exempt certain workers from FLSA-mandated overtime pay to be changed. The current Biden rule, effective July 1, 2024, requires employers to pay a salary of at least $844 a week ($43,888 a year) along with meeting other duties tests before they can avoid the requirement to pay 1.5 times the hourly pay rate to those working more than 40 hours in a work week. The higher salary threshold continues to be challenged in courts and is set to increase again on January 1, 2025, barring legal action that could stop it.
The first Trump Administration also rescinded and reissued rules that the Obama Administration put in place, including the salary threshold for the overtime exemption. The new administration may go further to change how employers implement the overtime statute.
This and several related wage and hour rules, such as the one to determine employment status under the law, also are on the block to be rescinded and reworked.
Wage and hour enforcement actions and audit activity beefed up under the Biden Administration, will lessen, especially if the Labor Department’s workforce is reduced.
Similarly, expect less scrutiny and activity from the Employee Benefits Security Administration, which oversees the implementation of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA). Regarding stock compensation and regulating stock-based retirement programs, employer plan administrators can expect a pullback from efforts to place more accountability on financial advisors.
The federal minimum wage, currently $7.25 an hour, is set by law, and Congress would need to reset that amount. This is not likely a priority under the new Trump Administration. Many states and localities set higher amounts for businesses and employers in those jurisdictions.
Other Labor Department functions, such as the Employment and Training Administration, which is responsible for administering the Federal Unemployment Tax Act and assisting in worker training through various programs, may see cuts under a Trump presidency.
The first Trump Administration put forth some effort to add a paid family leave provision to the FLSA for parents expecting children. While the U.S. currently has no law requiring most employers to provide paid time off for any employees, this limited initiative may get resurrected.
Income and Social Taxation
Major tax changes in effect since President Trump’s first term will sunset at the end of 2025 should Congress fail to extend the provisions. The likelihood of any income tax increases, even for the wealthy, is significantly reduced under the next Trump Administration and a Congress that is run by Republicans.
Payroll professionals should pay attention to the nuances surrounding the congressional debate over extending the 2017 legislation. While tax rate changes could occur in 2026, so could some other provisions, such as the expansion of the very limited deduction for employee moving expenses and the treatment of business-related meals.
Several initiatives pronounced on the stump by Trump could have far-reaching implications for payroll if they are passed by Congress. Recategorizing tips as tax-free will impact most payroll professionals in the service industry if such an initiative sees the light of day.
More far-reaching for payroll is whether the president-elect will push for higher tariffs on imports and, as he has said while campaigning, use those amounts to pare down or even eliminate the federal income tax altogether.
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is charged with administering the tax law and, importantly, collecting various taxes to fund the federal government’s operations such as the Defense Department and other social programs.
Expect cuts in funding and staffing at the IRS like the Labor Department. Several conservatives see much overreach not only in the interpretation of tax statutes for implementation but in enforcement for collections. This could impact payroll in its ability to report wages and remit taxes if services are reduced.
The Social Security Administration, while not charged with collecting the taxes assessed to fund its programs (IRS does that), nevertheless, has a very large bureaucracy that primarily administers retirement, health, and disability benefits under the Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA).
While incoming President Trump pledged on the campaign trail that he would not gut Social Security programs, the agency itself may be seen as a target for staff reductions.
Other Agencies
The independent Equal Employment Opportunity Commission’s efforts under the Obama and Biden Administrations included a payroll-related effort to collect employee tax form data and use it to compare the wage levels of different types of jobs across ethnic groups. This initiative likely will be curtailed under the new Trump presidency, with the influence of the EEOC greatly reduced.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, much like the Labor Department, has been seen by conservatives as unduly limiting innovation and stifling economic growth. Efforts underway by the CFPB to categorize many Earned Wage Access programs (also known as on-demand pay) as consumer loans subject to the general provisions of the Truth in Lending Act, likely will be halted or reversed when Trump takes office.
Expect other payment-related advances, such as the use of online payments, expansion of real-time payment rails, and developments with virtual currencies to continue with limited regulatory abatement under the next Trump Administration.
The Department of Homeland Security coordinates with the Labor Department to allow foreigners to be employed in the United States. The agency’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement group likely will see increased funding and support for initiatives to curtail illegal immigrants and this may impact how employers can employ and pay foreign workers.
The Affordable Care Act, sometimes known as Obamacare, is administered by several agencies and was one senator’s vote away from being eliminated during President Trump’s first term. On the campaign trail, Trump was vague about the prospects of further health care initiatives by the government. As several aspects of the Affordable Care Act involve payroll operations, those in payroll need to pay attention to how this new administration addresses the health care problem in the U.S.
Author: Michael Baer
Michael Baer is president of Baer Unlimited, an independent research, analysis, and communications provider. He has covered payroll-related developments for four decades. For more on these issues discussed above, contact him directly at mike.baer@baerunlimited.com, or book Michael as a mentor through the GPA Mentor page.