“Indyref2” Legislation in Scotland?

“Indyref2” Legislation in Scotland?
30 May 2019

On the 28th of May 2019. Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced legislation that could pave the way for a long-awaited “indyref2” referendum, carving possible Scottish independence away from the rest of the United Kingdom.

 

The Referendums (Scotland) Bill was introduced by the Cabinet Secretary for Government Business and Constitutional Relations, Michael Russell MSP.  It provides a legislative framework for referendums in Scotland, both now and in the future, open to people aged 16 years and over.

 

However, this is not a piece of legislation that provides detail on a date or referendum question, it is simply a Bill that allows the possibility of a referendum in the future.  As Mrs Sturgeon says, with the fact that Scotland largely voted to remain in the EU and faced with a possibility of a no deal Brexit, “now more than ever it is essential that we keep Scotland's options open”.

 

Global Payroll Association Comment

 

Does this signal another referendum in Scotland?  The short answer is no.  As we have said above, this is only legislation that could see a route to a referendum in the future.  First Minister Nicola Sturgeon recognises this and on 27 May 2019 in Dublin called for a new Scottish independence referendum in the “latter half” half of 2020

 

The Scottish National Party (SNP) have always been clear that they believe it is their right to hold another independence referendum “if there is a significant and material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will”.  This was written into their 2016 manifesto.

 

But it is not as simple as holding another referendum because the SNP believe it is their right and is in the interest of Scotland.  The law requires Scotland to obtain a “section 30” order from the UK government, to authorise an independence referendum and set the necessary legislation (with a date and the question / s).  The problem for Mrs Sturgeon is the UK government and the new incoming UK prime minister is unlikely to grant this section 30 order, like the one they granted at the time of the first independence referendum in 2014.

 

The point of this latest legislation seems therefore, largely symbolic given the reality that the UK government would not allow it anyway.  To us, it seems highly unlikely that another independence referendum will be held before the next elections in Scotland in May 2021.  Whilst there is no immediate concern, it is certainly one to keep on the professional’s radar and it does underline the deep divisions that are already being felt in the UK re Brexit.

On the 28th of May 2019. Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced legislation that could pave the way for a long-awaited “indyref2” referendum, carving possible Scottish independence away from the rest of the United Kingdom.

 

The Referendums (Scotland) Bill was introduced by the Cabinet Secretary for Government Business and Constitutional Relations, Michael Russell MSP.  It provides a legislative framework for referendums in Scotland, both now and in the future, open to people aged 16 years and over.

 

However, this is not a piece of legislation that provides detail on a date or referendum question, it is simply a Bill that allows the possibility of a referendum in the future.  As Mrs Sturgeon says, with the fact that Scotland largely voted to remain in the EU and faced with a possibility of a no deal Brexit, “now more than ever it is essential that we keep Scotland's options open”.

 

Global Payroll Association Comment

 

Does this signal another referendum in Scotland?  The short answer is no.  As we have said above, this is only legislation that could see a route to a referendum in the future.  First Minister Nicola Sturgeon recognises this and on 27 May 2019 in Dublin called for a new Scottish independence referendum in the “latter half” half of 2020

 

The Scottish National Party (SNP) have always been clear that they believe it is their right to hold another independence referendum “if there is a significant and material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will”.  This was written into their 2016 manifesto.

 

But it is not as simple as holding another referendum because the SNP believe it is their right and is in the interest of Scotland.  The law requires Scotland to obtain a “section 30” order from the UK government, to authorise an independence referendum and set the necessary legislation (with a date and the question / s).  The problem for Mrs Sturgeon is the UK government and the new incoming UK prime minister is unlikely to grant this section 30 order, like the one they granted at the time of the first independence referendum in 2014.

 

The point of this latest legislation seems therefore, largely symbolic given the reality that the UK government would not allow it anyway.  To us, it seems highly unlikely that another independence referendum will be held before the next elections in Scotland in May 2021.  Whilst there is no immediate concern, it is certainly one to keep on the professional’s radar and it does underline the deep divisions that are already being felt in the UK re Brexit.

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